2025 Hurricane Season Forecast Released, A Timely Call for Preparedness
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has Released an Active Hurricane Season Forecast, Fueled by Warm Sea Surface Temperatures and ENSO Conditions.
With early forecasts indicating a potentially active 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts above-average activity. Multiple forecasting agencies anticipate a higher-than-normal storm count, largely due to warmer ocean temperatures and the likely presence of neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions (neither strong La Niña nor El Niño). ENSO refers to a recurring climate pattern driven by variations in sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern tropical Pacific ocean and these changes influence atmospheric circulation worldwide. La Niña conditions, or cooler than average pacific waters, reduce vertical wind shear over the Atlantic, creating more favorable conditions for hurricane development. With less wind shear, storms can grow taller and stronger without being disrupted.
Even in neutral ENSO phases, where neither El Niño nor la Nina dominates, the environment tends to remain more supportive of tropical cyclone formation compared to strong el Nino years which typically suppress Atlantic activity. While these conditions may not produce storms at the extreme levels of 2024 experts caution that hurricane steering patterns may again favor landfalls, despite a slightly milder outlook, the threat remains significant.
NOAA, Atmospheric G2, and The Weather Company all converge on a clear message: the 2025 hurricane season is likely to bring another above-average tropical activity in the Atlantic. This is a timely reminder for air operators, specially those involved in emergency response to review and strengthen their preparedness strategies.
Key projections for 2025 include:
Named Storms: 18–23,
Hurricanes: 8–12,
Major Hurricanes (Cat 3 or higher): 4–6.
Regions at heightened risk include the Caribbean, the U.S. East Coast, and the Gulf Region where historical patterns and current oceanic trends, such as those observed during hurricane Milton's explosive intensification from category 1 to category 5 in less than 24 hours in October 2024, point to growing vulnerability. While Milton did not occur under ENSO conditions, its development highlights how elevated sea surface temperatures can fuel extreme storm behavior.
Although we can’t predict exact storms paths, preparedness remains a critical tool to mitigate impact. Proactive planning and operational readiness are essential to ensuring resilience and efficiency during hurricane season. Priority areas include performing thorough aircraft maintenance during low-activity periods to guarantee availability, while also ensuring spare parts and critical supplies are stocked and functional. Equally important is personnel preparedness encouraging staff to develop personal and family emergency plans helps reduce stress and maintain operational focus.
Finally, accurate forecasting of resource needs is vital, with operators advised to stock at least 30 days, bearing in mind that inflation and rising tariff could impact both aviation and ground support supply chains.
As we approach the 2025 hurricane season, readiness, response capabilities, thorough preparation, and effective resources management will be critical in facing potential natural disasters.
Sources:
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
• Atmospheric G2 & The Weather Company (2025 Outlook)
